000
AXNT20 KNHC 261139
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED JAN 26 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER TO 5N20W 2N30W...CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 35W...TO 2S37W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER
2S37W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 5N50W 14N30W BEYOND 
21N17W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...INTO LOUISIANA..AND THEN INTO 
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC 
OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN WITHIN A 15 NM TO 30 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GUATEMALA
INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN CHANNEL TO KEY WEST FLORIDA AND BEYOND 
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN 
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY SQUALL LINE. A SECOND SQUALL LINE IS
IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM 50 NM TO 100 NM OFFSHORE ALONG
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT ACCOMPANY THE SECOND SQUALL LINE ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 25N78W IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 28N76W...BEYOND 31N73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. BROKEN
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN CLUSTERS...WITH POSSIBLE RAIN... ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N62W 16N17W 20N78W AND TO THE EAST OF
21N81W 16N84W. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND 
WEST-NORTHWEST. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 21N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 26N45W TO 23N55W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM 23N55W TO 
21N66W...CURVING TO 22N75W NEAR ACKLINS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.  
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 29N39W 26N44W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN ARE WITHIN
60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N44W 24N52W 23N60W 22N69W.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 78W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO
11 FEET. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AROUND
A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N57W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 25N30W 15N43W. A 990 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N13W. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES 
THROUGH 32N10W...TO JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CENTER 
AND TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE CENTER MAY BE FORMING NEAR 31N21W...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 29N24W AND BEYOND 32N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT