000 AXNT20 KNHC 252327 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 1N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 86W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 25/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW NEAR MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ALONG 24N91W 21N95W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE W ATLC. A SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM SE OF A SQUALL LINE EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA ACROSS TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO 26N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 24N E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH OVER THE N TEXAS. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT CONTINUES TO PULL NE THROUGH WED NIGHT PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SE EXTENDING FROM FORT MYERS TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY WED MORNING AND TO BE E OF THE GULF LATER WED MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ITS WAKE THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. TRADE WINDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY USHERING IN ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 16N E OF 82W TO ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ON SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N78W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 52W-79W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 43W-57W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N41W TO 25N52W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 21N67W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO 80W ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH ABOUT 150 NM NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND THE COAST OF NW AFRICA AND CENTERED NEAR 33N16W WITH A SURFACE 995 MB CENTERED NEAR 32N15W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N16W TO 25N19W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW