000 AXNT20 KNHC 251749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N9W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 38W-50W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 25/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRES LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 20N96W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW PRES ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE COLD FRONT LYING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS EVENING AND FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WED AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PARTICULARLY N OF 25N AND W OF 85W. SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A RIDGE THAT IS DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AS THE FRONT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD FROM W TO E ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 8 FT. ALOFT...SW TO W WINDS DOMINATES THE GULF AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANCHORED ON AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SITUATED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE PICTURES ACROSS THE AREA. GUADALOUPE AND BARBADOS REPORTED 0.69 AND 0.39 INCHES RESPECTIVELY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS UP TO 40 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. A GALE WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. THIS WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU INTO FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N43W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N55W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THEN STRETCHES ALONG 22N64W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1030 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 35N65W IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT DAY AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC WED MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT... AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA N OF 28N W OF 72W WED AND WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED PER SHIP OBSERVATIONS JUST BEHIND THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 25N18W. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 1100 UTC SHOWED THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRES WITH WINDS OF 20-25 KT. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS NWD OVER THE W ATLC TO 50W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 31N35W TO 15N42W TO 4N50W. A JET STREAM BRANCH OF 70-90 KT IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS FROM 10N37W NEWD INTO NW AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR