000
AXNT20 KNHC 251138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 17W...
TO 4S30W...INTO NEAR 6S38W. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL FROM
1N TO 2S BETWEEN 38W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 22W...AND ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. BROKEN UPPER LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE WITHIN AT LEAST 600 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 5N46W
11N30W BEYOND 25N15W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST TO THE NORTH OF 25N
TO THE WEST OF 90W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W. SOME ISOLATED CELLS OF 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST
OF 27N82W ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...24N90W 19N95W. THE CYCLONIC
FLOW SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...WARM
FRONT AND COLD FRONT. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 29N93W. A WARM 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N90W AND 29N84W.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N93W AND 20N96W.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD...AND
TO REACH FLORIDA AND CROSS NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA 
WEDNESDAY MORNING AROUND SUNRISE. WIND SPEEDS NEAR AND ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 20 KT TO 25 KT. EXPECT SOME
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT ALSO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 22N63W TO 21N68W...
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N61W 21N67W...AND TRAILING OFF TOWARD THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. BROKEN LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREAS FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS...AND CUBA. THE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM
YESTERDAY THAT WERE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE CONTINUED THEIR WESTWARD PROGRESS. THESE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 77W.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W 27N50W TO 22N63W.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N63W TO 21N68W 
INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 15 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N43W 28N48W 25N55W 23N61W 21N67W...TRAILING
OFF TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. 
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 1002 LOW CENTER
IS NEAR 29N20W...ABOUT 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 27N19W AND 
24N21W. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW CENTER AND TROUGH IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT