000 AXNT20 KNHC 242357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 5N8W 3N12W 2N23W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-49W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 9W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT DOMINATED THE GULF IS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM A 1011 MB LOW AT 24/2100 UTC NEAR 28N95W ALONG 23N96W TO 21N97W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NE TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA COAST NEAR VERMILION BAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS BETWEEN 91W-96W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS LOW/FRONT REMAINS INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO TO ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH AT 24/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM 21N96W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST E OF VERACRUZ. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT S OF 26N E OF 92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NE TO THE S CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TUE MORNING THEN ACCELERATE ACROSS THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED MORNING THEN MOVE E OF THE GULF ON WED AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER N VENEZUELA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND N BELIZE WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC TO 50W AND A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 60W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY A WIND SHIFT EXTENDS FROM JUST OFFSHORE NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W TO OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 33N79W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING TO 24N60W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N68W TO S OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE W ATLC W OF FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT TO 30W GIVING THE AREA FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS. THE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 38N19W...29N23W...18N37W ENDING NEAR 6N46W. AT THE SURFACE IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A 1005 MB LOW IN THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 28N25W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING E ALONG 29N20W TO 31N15W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 18W-25W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICS WITH THE AXIS INLAND OVER AFRICA GIVING THE AREA E OF THE ABOVE UPPER TROUGH SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SE OF A LINE FROM 6N43W 18N29W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR 25N15W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS SE OF THE ABOVE LINE TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE FRONT SHIFTS NE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE W ATLC ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW