000 AXNT20 KNHC 241146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA TO 1N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...AND BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 3S36W. SCATTERED STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 9W AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 32W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN 41W AND 54W...INCLUDING INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 3N34W 7N26W BEYOND 15N14W. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...UNDER LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 22N31W 14N42W 5N48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE UPPER MIDWEST OF THE U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTS. MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS... AND TO HAVE CLEARED THE GULF WATERS COMPLETELY AT 72 HOURS. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS/POSSIBLE RAIN/FOG/HAZE ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST/COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS/MEXICO COASTAL WATERS AND PLAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 22N98W 29N91W. OTHER LOW CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF 30N90W 25N90W 19N94W...AND TO THE EAST OF 26N89W 22N85W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 89W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...AND THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING AND DISAPPEARING MORE AND MORE WITH TIME. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W...COVERING THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE RAIN FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS ENDED IN EASTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N53W 10N60W 12N64W...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 25N60W TO NORTHWESTERN HAITI. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM NORTHWESTERN HAITI TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...AND THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N48W 26N60W 22N70W...AND FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 83W...ENCOMPASSING THE BAHAMAS...CUBA... FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE RAIN FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS ENDED IN EASTERN CUBA. A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 0.60 INCHES CAME FROM BERMUDA FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 24/0000 UTC. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 25W...MOVING AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N45W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N44W 15N53W 15N60W...MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT