000
AXNT20 KNHC 240530
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA TO 3N15W 3N33W 2N46W...INTO EXTREME 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN
3W AND 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 41W AND 50W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 600 NM TO 720 NM TO 
THE NORTHWEST OF 2N35W 9N23W BEYOND 14N15W. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...UNDER LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC 
FLOW. A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY PASSES THROUGH
32N28W 22N31W 14N42W 5N48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ORGANIZING ITSELF IN THE 
UPPER MIDWEST OF THE U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF WATERS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
STRETCHES FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST 
PLAINS. MOSTLY SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND TO HAVE
CLEARED THE GULF WATERS COMPLETELY AT 72 HOURS. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS/POSSIBLE RAIN/FOG/HAZE ARE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST/
COASTAL PLAINS...AND MAYBE EVEN IN THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHER
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF 30N90W 25N90W
19N94W...AND IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA.
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 
NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO 18N81W AND EASTERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN MOSTLY LOW LEVEL-TO-MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA 
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM THE 
SOUTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO SOUTHERN JAMAICA...TO EASTERN 
HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS 
ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA...FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W.
  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N60W TO 21N70W. THE COLD 
FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 21N70W TO NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA...AND
THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
NORTHWESTERN JAMAICA TO 18N81W AND EASTERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N50W 
25N60W 23N70W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N70W 23N84W
NEAR WESTERN CUBA. LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOME AREAS OF 
EASTERN CUBA DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 
0.60 INCHES CAME FROM BERMUDA FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 
24/0000 UTC. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 
THE COLD FRONT...MOVING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
THAT IS NEAR 29N44W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N34W 17N46W
15N60W...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT