000
AXNT20 KNHC 240000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 1N33W EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO THE 
EQUATOR BETWEEN 8W-26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 
1024 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA NEAR 33N85W. THIS IS 
GIVING THE GULF WATERS E TO SE SURFACE FLOW. THE UPPER LEVELS 
ARE DOMINATED BY SW TO W FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE STREAMING N OVER THE W GULF MAINLY WITHIN 90/120 NM 
OF LINE FROM 21N94W TO OVER TEXAS NEAR 28N97W WITH BROKEN/ 
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL 
GULF FROM 22N-28N W OF 85W. THE NEXT FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF 
TONIGHT STALLING THROUGH MON EVENING WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE OFF TEXAS AND MERGE WITH THIS FIRST FRONT EXTENDING 
FROM A NEWLY DEVELOPED LOW ALONG THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO 
THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN OVER E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE 
CUBA ALONG 18N80W TO NE HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW 
CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. TO THE SE IS A WEAKENING SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 17N80W TO 11N81W THAT IS DRIFTING W WITH 
THE TRADEWINDS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN 
ANCHORED OVER NE VENEZUELA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR ALOFT. THIS IS GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FAIR 
WEATHER THIS EVENING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS TRADEWINDS INCREASE ACROSS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO BUILD NE OF AREA.
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING INTO THE 
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N60W TO 25N67W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N58W EXTENDING ALONG 
24N65W ACROSS THE EASTERN MOST TURKS AND CAICOS TO OVER CUBA 
WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ANCHORED OVER THE 
SE CONUS WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO 
80W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL 
AND E ATLC LEAVING THE AREA UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE TROPICS IS GIVING THE AREA S OF LINE 
6N47W TO 25N14W SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 
2N50W 13N27W BECOMING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA 
NEAR 18N16W. THE COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL EXTEND FROM 
24N65W TO E CUBA BY MON MORNING THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH 
TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MON 
THEN SHIFT E AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER W ATLC BY WED MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW