000
AXNT20 KNHC 231722
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N11W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 20W-26W...AND FROM 
EQ-5N BETWEEN 33W-43W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 2533N86W. 10-15 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF W 
OF 85W. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES 
WHILE IN THE 60'S OVER W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR...A COLD FRONT TO BE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH 
SHOWERS MOVING E.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 21N75W TO E 
HONDURAS ALONG 18N80W 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM 
OF THE FRONT. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER CUBA...HONDURAS...AND 
THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SW OF JAMAICA FROM 18N79W TO 
12N81W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. SHOWERS ARE 
OVER E PANAMA S OF 10N. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER 
ANTILLES E OF 64W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS IS OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT TO STALL 
AND DISSIPATE.   
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N62W TO E CUBA ALONG 
27N64W 23N70W 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 57W-70W. A 1027 MB 
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W PRODUCING FAIR 
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC E OF 45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 30N48W TO THE S BAHAMAS WITH SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA