000
AXNT20 KNHC 231136
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
7N12W CONTINUING SW ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 32W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AT SURFACE...RIDGING COVERS THE AREA... 
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR 
33N87W. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW 
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER 
THE SW BASIN INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 24N W OF 93W. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY...AHEAD OF THE 
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS ON MONDAY 
MORNING WITH STRONG CONVECTION IN THIS REGION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AS A 
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N78W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM W 
OF THE FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE 
TROUGH IS WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 19N78W TO 16N79W GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS...WITH CONVECTION LINGERING N OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DUE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN MON 
THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA.  
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC...ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W...CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 25N69W 22N78W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE 
UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH SEAS UP 
TO 9 FT. SIMILAR WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 27N TO 75W WITH 
SEAS 9-13 FT IN NW SWELL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 170 NM AHEAD 
OF IT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA E OF 60W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR ALOFT...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 33N38W PROVIDING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND 
ERN ATLC. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST WITH 
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA