000
AXNT20 KNHC 230532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W CONTINUING SW ALONG 5N20W 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 25W-40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 170 NM S OF THE 
AXIS E OF 25W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY THIS EVENING. AT SURFACE...RIDGING COVERS THE AREA... 
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 29N88W. 
THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE 
AREA...ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N OF 22N. THIS FLOW IS 
BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 22N W OF 93W. SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON 
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW 
GULF WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING WITH STRONG CONVECTION IN THIS 
REGION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 
22N78W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH 
IS WEST OF JAMAICA FROM 19N77W TO 15N80W GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AS THE COLD 
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD...THE SURFACE TROUGH 
WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH CONVECTION 
LINGERING N OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 85W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
AREA...DUE TO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN...AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN MON THROUGH WED 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA.  
  
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC...ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N69W...CONTINUING SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS 
TO CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 26N73W 22N78W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 
THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF 
THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N W OF 
FRONT TO 79W WITH SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
170 NM AHEAD OF IT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA E OF 65W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 34N41W 
PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO TRACK 
EAST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA