000 AXNT20 KNHC 222352 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 5N19W 3N26W 1N33W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-40W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N80W ACROSS W CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WITH DENSE LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 27N E OF 85W TO ACROSS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE GULF. A JET STREAM COVERS THE E GULF ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT N OF 23N E OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING BEHIND THIS FRONT NOW DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER S LOUISIANA AND A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ALSO DOMINATE THE GULF WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 94W. THE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE W GULF SUN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT THAT WILL REACH FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AS A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TEXAS LATE MON NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS W CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA ALONG 18N86W TO CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. A WEST MOVING SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 19N77W ACROSS CENTRAL JAMAICA ALONG 16N79W TO 12N79W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE BASIN LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE REACHING FROM E CUBA TO NE HONDURAS SUN MORNING THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH MON AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REACH W OF JAMAICA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SUN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NE OF AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 72W WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING N OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC FROM A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 32N76W ALONG 28N76W ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA JUST E OF HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 135 KT IS N OF 25N FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA TO 64W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 40W TO 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N72W TO BEYOND 32N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT DOMINATE THE ATLC S OF 26N E OF 60W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION. THE SURFACE LOW IN THE W ATLC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWIFTLY NE EXTENDING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N54W TO HISPANIOLA BY SUN EVENING CONTINUING E ON MON THEN DISSIPATING ON TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW