000
AXNT20 KNHC 221716
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 1N30W 1S40W EQ50W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND FROM 
EQ-3N BETWEEN 27W-36W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 4S-3N BETWEEN 36W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
FROM 25N80W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH 
A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF S 
OF 29N. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES 
WHILE IN THE 80'S OVER CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR...A 1022 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 
32N84W PRODUCING COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER FLORIDA...AND THE E 
GULF E OF 84W. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N82W TO 
HONDURAS AT 16N86W MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM 
OF THE FRONT. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF 
THE FRONT. FURTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA AT 20N75W TO N OF PANAMA ALONG 15N78W 
11N78W. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE S OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W. MORE 
SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA S OF 10N. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
TO S OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N81W WITH SHOWERS. 
  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF 
GEORGIA NEAR 31N77W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST N OF 29N W OF 
FRONT TO 79W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N48W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 50W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE TROPICS NEAR 16N43W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N29W PRODUCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 25W-28W. EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE SWIFTLY 
NE AND EXTEND A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N63W TO THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH CONVECTION.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA