000
AXNT20 KNHC 210601
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI JAN 21 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA TO 6N18W 3N26W 1N42W..CROSSING
THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 
29W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 11W AND 23W...AND
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 40W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY TO 
ARKANSAS...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN TEXAS TO THE FAR WEST OF TEXAS. 
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS A COMBINATION OF THE FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW THAT ALSO SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND 
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO 
GULF COAST NEAR 23N...AND CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO 28N103W IN 
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 
FLORIDA AND 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE AREAS OF FOG/HAZE/PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH
OF 20N96W 22N90W 26N82W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE 
AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N67W 13N68W 10N68W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM COASTAL 
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN OTHER CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS...WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N56W 11N62W 16N64W 20N63W...FROM 11N
TO 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W...FROM 18N TO COASTAL CUBA BETWEEN
80W AND 85W...AND FROM THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 21N
BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.
  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM FLORIDA AND 
THE BAHAMAS TOWARD THE AREA OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 33N51W TO 27N51W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 
32N53W TO 28N60W TO 26N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND 
52W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN CLOUD CLUSTERS THAT ARE WITHIN 
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 30N55W TO 27N63W 26N70W 
27N74W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N67W TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 
FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
BETWEEN THE 32N53W 26N66W COLD FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT THAT 
RUNS FROM THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 24N24W. THIS ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N18W TO 23N24W
TO 15N29W TO 5N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 24N24W. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 14W AND 22W. 
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT