000
AXNT20 KNHC 201725
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST THU JAN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 10N14W 4N20W EQ33W 2S43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 8S-3N 
BETWEEN 28W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N 
BETWEEN 38W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST INLAND OF 
CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS W FROM THE LOW TO 
BEYOND THE TEXAS BIG BEND AREA. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS MOST 
OF TEXAS. 20 KT N WINDS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN 
THE 50'S OR LESS. THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IS STILL IN THE WARM 
SECTOR WITH 5-10 KT SE SURFACE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 
70'S. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS SIMILAR SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS AND SE FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS 
FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE WITH SHOWERS. 20 KT N WINDS AND A GOOD AMOUNT OF 
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE N OF THE FRONT...WITH GALE FORCE 
WINDS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE N OF THE FRONT AND S OF 25N. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N73W. PATCHES OF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN ANTILLES E OF 68W...OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF JAMAICA...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 
THE COASTS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA MOVING W. 
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE S OF 17N WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE N OF 17N WITH 
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
BROAD RIDGE IS PRODUCING WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT... SHOWERS TO 
MOVE SLOWLY W WITH THE TRADEWINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N63W 
TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 30N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE 
TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 
30N23W TO 27N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS N OF 20N W OF 60W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT IN 
24 HOURS...FOR A NEW COLD FRONT TO EXTEND OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
FROM 30N77W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE 
OTHER TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA