000
AXNT20 KNHC 200550
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST THU JAN 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF LIBERIA TO 3N15W..CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 1S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 
5S40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO 
THE EAST OF 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W TO 7N23W
BEYOND 12N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MEXICO...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES FROM ABACO ISLAND... ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO 
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD 22N94W IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN...FOG...AND HAZE COVER THE WATERS 
AND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST TO THE NORTH OF 23N. 
THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITIES OF PRECIPITATION AND FOG
AND HAZE ARE COMPARATIVELY GREATER TO THE NORTH OF 27N. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ENTIRE 
AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 60W AND 65W...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA FROM
19N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND 69W...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W
AND 77W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN EASTERN JAMAICA AND 81W.
  
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM 
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS TOWARD 30N55W. THIS WIND REGIME IS
ON TOP OF THE AREA OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA
TO ABACO ISLAND OF THE BAHAMAS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM ABACO ISLAND...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE 
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. RAINSHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N63W TO 29N68W TO
26N77W NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF ABACO ISLAND. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT STARTS WITH
A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W TO 26N61W
TO ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND THE BERMUDA-TO-ABACO COLD FRONT. ONE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N21W. A SECOND BRANCH GOES 
FROM 23N24W TO 14N33W TO 3N42W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT