000
AXNT20 KNHC 192336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
9N13W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL ALONG 3N20W 1S30W 4S40W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SE GULF...ANALYZED FROM THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 24N88W 
CONTINUING AS A WEAK STATIONARY TO 22N95W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM 
LACKS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...SINCE ITS UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT IS QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE WEST ATLC. 
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF INDICATE ANTI-CYCLONIC 5-15 KT FLOW 
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AS THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND 
MOVES OUT OF THE GULF...ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN 
STORE FOR THE NW GULF AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY IN OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDED BY A DRY 
STABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.      

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 11N64W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE 
ATMOSPHERE ALOFT FOR THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. MARINE OBS 
ACROSS THE BASIN INDICATE TRADE WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE E 
OF 83W...WITH HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC TO OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 
13N-18N BETWEEN 70W-78W AND ALSO E OF 63W. OTHERWISE...FAIR 
WEATHER IS ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC...ENTERING THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W...EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 
28N74W 25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
25N. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATING AN 
AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 67W-74W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS SEABOARD. 
STRONG DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. AHEAD OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC E OF 77W...ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB 
HIGH NEAR 30N40W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA