000
AXNT20 KNHC 191138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST WED JAN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
ALONG 28W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S43W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 
30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W TO 6N26W 11N22W
BEYOND 15N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
GEORGIA INTO FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE FLOW ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY IS EITHER WESTERLY AND/OR SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA TO 27N90W AND 24N96W.
THE COLD FRONT IS MARKED BY A WELL-DEFINED ROPE CLOUD IN THE 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN ONE
CLOUD LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO 22N90W...
AND WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ROPE CLOUD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND 
PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT SPANS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N68W 21N65W BEYOND 18N60W...WITHIN
60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N61W 13N66W 15N70W 18N75W...
FROM GREAT INAGUA IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
TO JAMAICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING NEAR 30N62W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N73W TO 31N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 31N TO 
32N BETWEEN 63W AND 65W. THE 32N52W 31N53W COLD FRONT FROM SIX 
HOURS AGO NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 31N53W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT STARTS WITH
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N40W TO 27N61W
TO ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD OF CUBA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS 
THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 
AFRICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 14N38W TO 2N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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