000
AXNT20 KNHC 190513
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED JAN 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 4N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR
ALONG 32W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 6S42W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF
30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. MIDDLE LEVEL 
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 1S33W 6N25W BEYOND 13N17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. THE TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT
FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA TO A 1009 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO 25N92W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 90W...AND TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND 
PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
THAT SPANS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF LOW
TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM
17N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 63W AND
66W...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...AND FROM 17N TO 21N
BETWEEN 70W AND JAMAICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM SOUTHERN 
MEXICO...ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN REACHING NEAR 30N62W. THE SOUTHWESTERLY 
FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N75W TO 30N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE 
DISSIPATED ALREADY IN THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND 
AND CUBA...AND FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND FLORIDA...ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 
31N53W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N53W TO 28N60W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY WEAKENING AND/OR
ALREADY DISSIPATED...FROM 29N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT STARTS 
WITH A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N39W TO 
28N49W 25N65W 25N75W...TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE 
BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 26N23W 
16N37W TO 2N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT