000 AXNT20 KNHC 181742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 06N10W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 03S42W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS AND SUPPORTS A WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST TO EASTERN TEXAS. MOSTLY DRY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE STATIONARY FRONT PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE TUESDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN DIMINISHING AND SHIFTING EASTERLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N68W AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AN OVERALL DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASSES INDICATED E-NE TRADES IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE...WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 17N OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF A LINE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 66W...AND OVER HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 75W THAT SUPPORTS A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED OFF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CENTERED NEAR 35N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTLINE. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO ANALYZED FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 32N76W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COAST NEAR 27N80W. WHILE W-SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE W ATLC WATERS W OF 70W...THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH GENERALLY LACK AND SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WELL EAST OF THE FRONT LOCATED N OF 27N BETWEEN 62W-72W. THIS LOW AND ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC IS ANALYZED TO 32N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W-SW TO 30N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N41W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN/RAMOS