000
AXNT20 KNHC 181147
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 5N2W TO 2N18W TO CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W
TO 2N20W TO 2N34W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE 
EAST OF 50W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST
OF CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA AND CENTRAL SURINAME...AND WITHIN
120 NM TO 180 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN CENTRAL SURINAME AND
CENTRAL GUYANA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 68W...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA
THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT RUNS RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER PART
OF THE AREA. A SEPARATE BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES 
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO...ACROSS THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BEYOND SOUTH
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N81W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN 
FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N89W. RAINSHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N
BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 78W/79W 
FROM 28N TO 31N. A THIRD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N88W INTO 
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...HAZE...FOG...
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTH OF 
30N...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND FLORIDA FROM THE BIG BEND
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS
WIND PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE OPEN WATERS...TO THE EAST
OF 73W...EVERYTHING MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS WILL COVER THE WATERS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH 
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THURSDAY 
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 68W...
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
30N57W...TO 28N63W AND 24N71W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST 
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W 26N60W 24N70W 22N77W NEAR 
CUBA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO THE EAST OF 60W...AROUND A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 28N43W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N20W TO 30N25W TO 27N28W...
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT