000
AXNT20 KNHC 180546
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM CENTRAL COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 2N20W TO 2N34W... 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 41W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL
NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 4N TO THE EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO THANKS TO A TROUGH THAT RUNS RIGHT THROUGH THE CENTER 
PART OF THE AREA. A SEPARATE BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES 
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...FROM JUST SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
BEYOND SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER 
IS IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
CENTER NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND NORTH CAROLINA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
PARALLELS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 30N80W TO THE WATERS THAT 
ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS 
FROM NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. A 1012 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N92W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...
HAZE...FOG...AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER TEXAS TO THE SOUTH 
OF 30N...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND FLORIDA FROM THE BIG BEND TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THIS
WIND PATTERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS
OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE OPEN WATERS...TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 76W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL 
COVER THE WATERS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE TRADE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM 30N80W
TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH 
FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING 
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W BEYOND 32N74W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N60W 28N63W 26N68W. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N47W 26N60W 24N70W 24N75W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF 
60W...AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N42W. 
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 28N27W. LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE 
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT