000 AXNT20 KNHC 172341 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2335 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS WEST FROM THE LIBERIA COAST NEAR 6N11W ALONG 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W ENDING IN BRAZIL NEAR 3S46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE FROM 1S TO 5S BETWEEN 26W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE GULF...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF IT MOVING ACROSS THE NE BASIN. THIS SYSTEM SUPPORTS A COMPLEX 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 29N84W. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS QUICKLY MOVING NE OUT OF THE AREA...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA ALONG 26N81W 22N83W. THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS BOUNDARY IS DEPICTED BY MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AT ABOUT 18 KT. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FOUND WEST OF THE SURFACE LOW N OF 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA...FROM THE LOW CENTER TO NEAR 28N89W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE BASIN WITH MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NE BRAZIL. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN E OF 70W TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ENTERING THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC W OF 76W...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM... CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF...MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED TO THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC ANALYZED FROM 31N61W TO 25N69W. WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 30N41W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND MOST OF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES TO HINDER A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W TO 28N26W. THEREFORE...JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA