000 AXNT20 KNHC 171145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W TO 4N17W TO 2N22W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 26W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 26W AND 44W...AND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N11W 7N20W 5N30W 2N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1S TO 3S BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS INFLUENCES THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB EAST TEXAS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST...AND THEN CURVING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS ABOUT 130 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 92W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N85W 25N86W 23N89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 80W AND 90W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STOPS NEAR 31N75W...AND CONTINUES TO 29N80W... CROSSING TO THE GULF WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 26N82W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOSTLY DRY AIR SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. IT IS MOVING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN BRAZIL. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM TRINIDAD AND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF VENEZUELA TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 65W AND 71W. FEW SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 18N72W TO 14N77W TO 10N77W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS FROM THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WIND FLOW IS TURNING AROUND BROAD WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT SPANS NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 31N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N75W AND TO 29N80W...CROSSING TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 26N82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 29N46W TO 28N66W TO 23N73W...JUST OFF MAYAGUANA AND THE ACKLINS IN THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N45W...MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT