000 AXNT20 KNHC 170536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM SOUTHEASTERN LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 3N26W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N16W AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE FROM 3S TO 1N BETWEEN 27W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM 2S TO 4S BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS RELATED TO A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS INFLUENCES THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 88W. THE ACTUAL TROUGH RUNS ROUGHLY FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IS IN TEXAS...EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...TO SOUTH TEXAS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 23N97W 29N90W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N85W 23N89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE END OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT STOPS NEAR 31N75W...AND CONTINUES TO 29N79W...CROSSING TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N82W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOSTLY DRY AIR SHOWS UP IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. IT IS MOVING AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN BRAZIL. PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 12N NEAR GRENADA TO 16N NEAR GUADELOUPE BETWEEN 60W AND 62W...FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W BETWEEN VENEZUELA AND PUERTO RICO...ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 80W AND THE NICARAGUA/ PANAMA BORDER. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS WIND FLOW IS TURNING AROUND BROAD WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT SPANS NORTHERN COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO 31N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N75W AND TO 29N79W... CROSSING TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT...THAT HAS SEPARATED ITSELF FROM THE OTHER PART OF THE FRONT THAT CURRENTLY ENDS NEAR 31N28W...STARTS NEAR 29N43W AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N51W. A STILL ACTIVE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 28N51W TO 28N62W. A WARM FRONT GOES FROM 28N62W TO 28N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 28N68W TO 23N73W...JUST OFF MAYAGUANA AND THE ACKLINS IN THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 47W AND 70W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N34W...AND A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N49W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 31N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT