000
AXNT20 KNHC 161117
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N11W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 25W-44W.    

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 30N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS 
S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW 
IS NOTED OVER THE GULF AROUND THE HIGH. A 1016 MB LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 28N98W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH RAIN 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W GULF AND INLAND OVER E TEXAS 
AND NE MEXICO N OF 24N BETWEEN 95W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
70 KT SW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO E TEXAS WITH CONVECTION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH TO NE 
MEXICO. ALSO EXPECT...SCATTERED SHOWERS TO ADVECT N FROM THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W. 15-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER 
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 
31N40W TO 28N50W TO 26N60W TO 24N70W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N W OF 30W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE ATLANTIC FRONT 
TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA