000
AXNT20 KNHC 152345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 
5N8W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 3N14W 2N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 27W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 2S32W...THEN CROSSING 
BACK NEAR 40W TO 1S51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
80 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE AXIS BETWEEN 26W-37W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY 
IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 44W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN 
MEXICO SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE 
ASSOCIATED FRONTS REMAIN WITHIN 60 NM INLAND ACROSS MEXICO AND 
TEXAS. NEVERTHELESS...THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS W OF 95W N OF 22N ALONG THE NW CORNER OF THE BASIN. 
COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD 
ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS WELL 
AS THE NE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA AND 
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-88W. AN 
EARLIER WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED A WEAK WIND SHIFT 
IN THIS AREA...WHICH MAY BE A REFLECTION OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH 
EMBEDDED IN OTHERWISE MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. 
OTHER THAN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...NO 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LITTLE ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W 
THIS AFTERNOON...AS A MOSTLY DRY AIR MASS COVERS THE BASIN WITH 
MAINLY WSW FLOW ALOFT. 15-20 KT TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THIS 
REGION...TURNING NE W OF 77W. THIS TURNING IS GENERATING BANDS 
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W AND NW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN W 
OF 77W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED FROM 16N80W TO A 
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W TO INDICATE THE 
WIND SHIFT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOTICED ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA BLOWING UP TO 25 KT WITHIN 130 NM BETWEEN 71W-74W. NO 
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS 
OTHERWISE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A FAIRLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAK IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC 
SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. AS OF SAT 1800 UTC...THE 
STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED ALONG 32N34W 28N50W 24N65W...WHERE 
IT BECOMES A REMNANT CLOUD/SHEAR AXIS TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 
20N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR 
AXIS. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL 
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND SHIFT NE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED WEST OF 
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE FAR WEST ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC IS COVERED BY A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A WEAK 
1021 MB HIGH S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR 27N40W MAINTAINING 
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS HALF OF THE BASIN.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA