000
AXNT20 KNHC 151124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 7N11W TO 3N20W TO 1N30W TO EQ50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 23W-31W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N 
BETWEEN 41W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. 10-15 KT 
FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W DUE TO RETURN FLOW. DRIZZLE 
AND FOG ARE REPORTED OVER NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS S OF 30N. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THUS 
THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND 
DRIZZLE OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. 15-20 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES 
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER 
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW 
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS DUE TO A TIGHT 
SURFACE GRADIENT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO 28N50W TO 25N65W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES 
TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
27N43W MOVING E. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 10N W OF 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
N OF 10N E OF 35W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA