000
AXNT20 KNHC 150514
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT JAN 15 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N AND THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4N20W TO 1N30W 
TO 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN FROM 3N-5N 
BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 28W-43W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 34N89W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 10-15 KT 
FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W DUE TO RETURN FLOW. DRIZZLE 
AND FOG ARE REPORTED OVER S TEXAS AND NOTED ON RADAR S OF 30N. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF THUS 
THE GULF IS VOID OF ANY HIGH CLOUD. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN AND 
DRIZZLE OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS 
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN 
LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
PANAMA TO BELIZE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA AND 
JAMAICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS DUE TO A TIGHT 
SURFACE GRADIENT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 28N50W TO 25N65W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES 
TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
ATLANTIC N OF 10N W OF 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 10N E 
OF 35W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA