000
AXNT20 KNHC 142345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 01N20W TO 
02N30W TO 02S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 31W AND 42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE CIRCULATION AROUND A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE 
SE UNITED STATES IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. FRESH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AS 
INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...LOOSENING THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 
20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. 
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH EASTERN CUBA EXTENDING TO 
EASTERN HONDURAS. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE 
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER 
THE WESTERN N ATLC WEAKENING...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN HAS LOOSENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS HAS 
DIMINISHED WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 
MODERATE TO FRESH.   

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM 
CENTERED NEAR 36N24W TO NEAR 25N51W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE TROPICAL BELT S 
OF 20N. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 
32N48W EXTENDING TO 25N61W THEN STATIONARY TO EASTERN CUBA. 
FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL S OF 26N W OF THE FRONT WITH 
FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS PREVAILS N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND 
FLOW. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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AL