000 AXNT20 KNHC 141754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 04N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3N13W TO 1N24W TO 2N29W TO 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S48W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 1N35W 2N39W...2N42W 3N46W...3N48W 2N52W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 53W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 2N7W 3N16W 2N22W 1N27W 1N31W 1N34W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 22N/23N. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE BRANCH OF A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST...WHILE ANOTHER BRANCH POINTS TOWARD THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO BE EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE GALE WARNING TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST OF 95W FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST SOUTHWARD...RELATED TO A CLOUD LINE IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 19N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 19N76W TO 18N82W AND EASTERN HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA ALONG 80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N68W TO 17N72W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 16N77W TO 14N81W TO 10N82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO IN BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...AND FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 26N60W BEYOND 20N73W...HEADING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD 5 TO 10 KT...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT LACKS GOOD ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ORDER TO PUSH IT EASTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 32N45W TO 26N60W TO 20N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO NEAR 34N18W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 22N20W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N40W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF THE 32N50W 20N73W COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N31W TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N37W TO 28N45W TO 26N54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT