000 AXNT20 KNHC 141133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N9W 3N18W 3N41W 1N51W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ W OF 39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-29W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-18W AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NE CONUS AND INTO THE W ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S GULF S OF LINE FROM NAPLES FLORIDA ALONG 22N89W TO 21N94W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES E HALF OF THE CONUS AND THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1034 MN HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BANK BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY E THROUGH SAT ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE GULF. SE RETURN FLOW WILL ESTABLISH OVER W GULF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO JUST INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT MORNING WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SAT AFTERNOON AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W ALONG 27N60W TO 24N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC TO 80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 17N55W EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N44W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS S TO 20N E OF 28W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 16N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WITH A PAIR OF 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 32N33W AND JUST S OF THE AZORES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW