000 AXNT20 KNHC 140534 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N9W 4N18W 1N26W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N20W TO 2N30W WITH LARGE CLUSTERS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR W OF 36W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND SMALL CLUSTERS FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 12W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NE CONUS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE S GULF S OF LINE FROM 26N86W TO 25N93W AND OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N E OF 86W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES E CONUS AND THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1036 MN HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND AND 1035 MB HIGH OVER E KENTUCKY. THIS SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE SURFACE FLOW AND IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT CONTINUES TO BANK OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W TO INLAND OVER E LOUISIANA...TEXAS AND MEXICO. SE RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER W GULF LATE FRI THROUGH SUN AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO JUST INLAND OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. RESIDUAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING ACROSS ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N55W ALONG 26N66W ACROSS THE S BAHAMAS TO 22N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR CAMAGUEY. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM W OF THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC NEAR 18N56W EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS S TO 20N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W TO 28N22W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL INTO THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC COLD FRONT WITH A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N35W AND A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE E ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW