000 AXNT20 KNHC 131724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... FROM 05N ALONG THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 4N10W TO 3N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 34W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S44W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W IN BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TWENTY-FOUR HOURS AGO NOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING AWAY FROM AN 18N119W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N. PRACTICALLY ALL THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS SOUTHWESTERLY... EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SHARP SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH TEXAS AND MEXICO ALONG 28N100W TO 23N98W AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE REACHING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND NEARBY WATERS. THE STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 77W TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF 22N80W 16N84W. BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHERLY WITH THE GFS MODEL HINTING AT AN WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED TROUGH FROM EASTERN HONDURAS TO 16N77W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLOUDS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N66W 16N65W 11N62W...AND IN CLOUDS THAT ARE CURVING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N81W 13N84W 9N82W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W...TO 26N70W...CROSSING LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA TO CUBA NEAR 22N79W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO SOUTHERN BELIZE. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W...WITHIN 270 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 25N70W 21N77W IN CUBA...AND FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 69W AND 73W TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND GREAT INAGUA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 23N35W TO 14N35W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO 28N30W. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 28N30W TO 24N40W TO 23N50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF 25W. BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N27W 25N36W 24N50W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N25W 28N30W COLD FRONT. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N43W. A RIDGE GOES THROUGH 33N32W TO THE HIGH CENTER TO 27N56W TO 26N64W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT