000 AXNT20 KNHC 131148 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N9W 3N21W 2N31W 2N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-20W AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N47W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 40W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH A SECOND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES LEAVING THE GULF WITH W TO SW FLOW ALOFT. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE S GULF FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE S OF LINE FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO NEAR 21N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO EXTENDING FROM 27N96W ALONG 23N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1041 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES PRODUCING STRONG N TO NE SURFACE FLOW AND BANKING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W TO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG N TO NE WINDS THROUGH THU MORNING THEN BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NW TO SE THU THROUGH FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA E OF SANTA CLARA ALONG 19N85W TO JUST INLAND OVER CENTRAL BELIZE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 18N58W AND EXTENDS TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N82W TO OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND DISSIPATE EARLY FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION 32N65W ALONG 26N72W ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN E OF SANTA CLARA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER W AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 18N58W TO BEYOND 32N54W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 25N W OF 61W TO THE ABOVE FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N28W TO 26N36W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 24N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 60W WITH A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 31N46W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW