000
AXNT20 KNHC 122338
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 07N12W TO 03N19W TO 05N28W TO 
00N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 26W AND 31W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED E OF THE AREA WITH LATEST ASCAT PASS 
INDICATING FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE GULF. LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG COLD CORE 1041 
MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH SHARP SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINING OVER THE CENTRAL US REGION...CAA 
WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

LATEST ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
THAT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR 
NW PART OF THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM THE NW ATLANTIC ACROSS 
WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE NE WINDS 
FRESHENING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. 
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT 
EASTWARD...REACHING FROM E CUBA TO THE N GULF OF HONDURAS THU 
MORNING WHERE IT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY 
DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC...THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS WILL 
PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

STRONG SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS N OF THE TROPICAL BELT OVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS IS MAINTAINING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
WHICH IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE TROPICAL 
BELT S OF 20N. THE STRONG RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS MAINTAINING THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM 32N68W TO WESTERN CUBA. RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES 
FRESH SW WINDS N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT...AND FRESH TO STRONG 
NW TO N WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE TO 32N59W TO EASTERN CUBA BY THU AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE TO 
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS W OF THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N34W TO 25N13W THEN A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS 
FROM THE FRONT S OF A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED NEAR 
30N48W...TO 23N61W. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 
HOURS...THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THAT TIME.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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AL