000
AXNT20 KNHC 112348
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST TUE JAN 11 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N10W TO 03N16W TO 04N45W TO 
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 32W AND 38W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 38W AND 42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N82W TO 21N92W. NORTHERLY 
WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LATEST ASCAT...BUOY...AND 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF WHERE COLD AIR IS MOVING OFF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED 
STATES AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER 
NORTH TEXAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF 
THE GULF N OF THE FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE 
AS THE HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH...AND WILL BE SE OF THE AREA BY 
WED MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 29N64W...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS 
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS 
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH NEAR GALE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST ASCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. 
LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
EARLY WED BRINGING AN INCREASE TO THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY WED NIGHT 
AS THE FRONT MOVES SE AND REACHES FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS.

N ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 32N...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 
33N72W SW OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. A 
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N64W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG 
S TO SW WINDS N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT AS INDICATED FROM THE 
LATEST ASCAT PASS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N66W TO WESTERN 
CUBA WED AFTERNOON AND FROM 32N57W TO CENTRAL CUBA BY THU 
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS AND 
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE FRONT LOSES ITS 
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM 32N40W TO 25N51W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS 
FEATURE LIFTING OUT...THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY 
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
TWO HIGH PRESSURE AREAS...A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED NEAR 36N15W AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH...AND 
LOWER PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADEWINDS IN THE TROPICAL BELT S OF 20N. THE ENHANCED 
TRADES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MENTIONED IN 
THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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