000 AXNT20 KNHC 110537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 6N10W 3N23W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 38W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 6N20W TO 3N33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT CONTINUES TO BE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF AND OVER SE CONUS WHICH IS STILL GIVING PARTS OF SE WINTER WEATHER. THE ORIGINAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING OVER THE W ATLC WITH A RE-ENFORCING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS WITH A SECOND FRONT WELL INLAND OVER ARKANSAS AND NW LOUISIANA. THE LEADING SHORTWAVE IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW THAT AS OF 11/0300 UTC IS IN THE W ATLC TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO 26N85W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHES OF FOG ARE N OF 27N TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES WILL PUSH IT OUT OF THE GULF ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N64W NNE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N W OF 80W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 200/225 NM OF LINE FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO ACROSS CUBA AND HAITI NEAR 20N79W. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED BRINGING FRESH NE WINDS THAT GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG BY WED NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVE OFF THE US COAST EARLIER ON MON IS IN THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS FROM 33N71W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH SUPPORTING AT 11/0300 UTC A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 32N79W AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N TO 29N. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC N OF 24N BETWEEN 55W-75W AND ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N54W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE W ATLC WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS WITHIN 175/200 NM OF LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N76W TO 28N63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW JUST E OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REMAINS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND TRAILING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N46W SW ALONG 27N52W TO NEAR 23N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LEVELS ANCHORED NEAR 23N27W WITH A SURFACE 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N23W THUS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THE ATLC E OF FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW