000
AXNT20 KNHC 101718
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N07W TO 03N24W TO 02N40W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 23W AND 26W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS W OF 37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF APALACHICOLA NEAR 
29N85W AND WILL MOVE NE INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OVERNIGHT. A 
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW TO 23N90W...THEN 
STATIONARY TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED 
E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. LOW STRATUS IS NOTED OVER THE GULF 
COAST AND NEAR SHORE WATERS FORM HOUSTON THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA. 
GENERALLY CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE. THE 
LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT LEAVING THE COLD 
FRONT FROM 29N83W TO 25N86W TO 23N89W. A REINFORCING SURGE OF 
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH THE GULF TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS 
DOWN FROM THE N. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE OFF OF COSTA RICA AND 
WESTERN PANAMA. THIS IS THE RESULT OF CONVERGING 15 TO 20 KT 
TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN...AIDED BY 
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. THE CONVECTION IS PROVIDING BROKEN CIRRUS 
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BUOY AND LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS 
SHOW E TRADE WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE FAR EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WHERE A LINE OF BUILDING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS NOTED FROM FROM 
PUERTO RICO TO MARGARITA ISLAND MOVING WEST. THESE WINDS WILL 
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA. A 
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT BRINGING FRESH 
NE WINDS THAT GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG BY WED NIGHT.

N ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 32N...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO OFF 
THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TODAY. A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
THE LOW PRES CENTER TO OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST WILL LIFT N OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. 
BUOYS N OF THE BAHAMAS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 20 TO 25 KT SW WINDS 
S OF THE WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES CENTER. THE LOW 
WILL SHIFT NE TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE TODAY...REACHING FROM 
31N73W TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA BY TOMORROW NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY 
15 TO 20 KT NW FLOW N OF 29N. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...ANOTHER 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N52W TO 28N57W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. 
WEAK CONVECTION IS APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY ALONG THE 
FRONT...N OF 28N. THIS FRONT IS SLOWING AND WEAKENING AS IT 
SHIFTS EAST AND AS ITS SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THE 
FRONT WILL STALL FROM 32N41W TO 26N51W AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...1029 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N27W. BUOY AND ASCAT DATA 
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF THE HIGH 
PRES...GENERALLY S OF 23N E OF 55W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN