000
AXNT20 KNHC 101151
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N11W 6N16W 7N25W 4N36W ACROSS 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 23W-32W AND FROM 1N 
TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 34W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS MORNING REMAINS THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF 
AND SE CONUS WHICH IS GIVING PARTS OF SE WINTER WEATHER THIS 
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NE FROM N ALABAMA 
THROUGH GEORGIA AND TO ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WITH THE 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE N GULF W OF A LINE CAPE SAN BLAS 
FLORIDA TO TUXPAN MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1008 MB LOW THAT AS OF 
10/0900 UTC IS IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N87W WITH A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDING S TO 23N91W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 
INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM 
THE LOW TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR TAMPA TO OVER LAKE 
OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N E OF THE 84W TO OVER 
NE FLORIDA. EXPECT THE LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E TO NE AND BE IN 
THE W ATLC MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO 
THE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EXITING THE GULF ON LATER TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 
67W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 79W-83W 
INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FRESH/STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI 
AS HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS N OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT BRINGING FRESH NE WINDS THAT 
GRADUALLY BECOME STRONG BY WED NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD S OVER THE W ATLC N OF 26N 
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE NW ATLC 
JUST S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EXTENDING TO 32N TRAILING A 
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N54W SW ALONG 
27N65W TO E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W WHERE IT BEGINS TO 
DISSIPATE AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO OVER THE 
W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE FRONTAL 
SYSTEM. THE DISSIPATING REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS TO 
THE E OF THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W TO 23N65W WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 
29N. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER 
LEVELS ANCHORED NEAR 25N29W WITH A SURFACE 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 
32N28W THUS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THE ATLC E OF FRONTS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW