000
AXNT20 KNHC 100535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON JAN 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N11W 4N18W 2N32W ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 27W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF AND SE 
CONUS WHICH IS GIVING PARTS OF SE WINTER WEATHER TONIGHT. AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING NE THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND 
ALABAMA WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE NW GULF W OF A 
LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO SUPPORTING A 
1008 MB LOW THAT AS OF 10/0300 UTC IS IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 
29N90W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N91W TO INLAND OVER 
MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AND CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 
THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS 
SE FROM THE ACROSS KEY WEST FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY 
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 24N80W. 
SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N89W TO INLAND OVER MOBILE BAY 
ALABAMA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 84W-87W. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-91W FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
EXPECT THE LOW TO MOVE NE AND BE OVER NE FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS 
WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AND 
EXITING THE GULF ON TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 
70W. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 79W-84W. TRADE WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO FRESH/STRONG OVERNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH FRI AS 
A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WED DISSIPATING THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW ATLC S OF NEWFOUNDLAND EXTENDING 
TO 30N TRAILING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 
32N59W SW ALONG 27N68W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W WHERE IT 
BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE W AND THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR ALOFT LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF A PREVIOUS COLD FRONT IS TO THE 
E OF THE ABOVE FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N48W TO 25N61W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A DEEP 
LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH THE UPPER LEVELS ANCHORED 
NEAR 24N29W WITH A SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 31N30W THUS 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER THE ATLC E OF 50W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW