000
AXNT20 KNHC 091737
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN JAN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N09W TO 04N23W TO 02N45W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED N OF THE AXIS 
FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1002 MB LOW EMERGED OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING NEAR 
CORPUS CHRISTI...ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL DEFINED SQUALL LINE ON 
REGION RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY. CURRENT SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING 
DATA SHOW THE SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 29N94W TO 26N95W...AND 
BUOY DATA ARE SHOWING SE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW 
PRES. FURTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL STALL 
AND LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MON AS THE 
SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST. THE LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENE 
TOWARD MOBILE BAY ALABAMA THROUGH EARLY MON. ALONG WITH STRONG 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...THE 
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE WINDS TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF 
WATERS THROUGH EARLY MON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS MOVING 
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS CURRENTLY...AND WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR 
29N91W TO 20N97W THIS EVENING THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND 
THROUGH 24N90W TO 19N96W MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E OF 
THE AREA LATE TUE AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH 
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED CLOUDINESS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS 
MORNING...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER BEING UPPER LEVEL ON THE 
EDGE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OFF NE BRAZIL. BUOY AND SHIP DATA 
SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS IN PLACE...AS WELL AS 
OUTLINING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 17N68W TO 14N75W. TRADE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS N OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN 
ON WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS FRONT 
IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAIRLY ZONAL 
UPPER FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN A DEEP LOW OVER NEW 
ENGLAND AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE DEEP TROPICS. GALE WARNINGS 
WERE LOWERED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN N 
FLORIDA AND BERMUDA...ALTHOUGH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL 
CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT SW 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N AS FAR EAST AS 50W. AN AREA OF 
LOW PRES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PORTION 
MON NIGHT REACHING FROM 31N77W TO CAPE CANAVERAL LATE TUE. 
FURTHER EAST...1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES NEAR 30N33W DOMINATES 
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC. ASCAT DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF TRADE WINDS S OF 24N E OF 50W TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE HIGH PRES. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ. SKIES 
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC EXCEPT FOR 
NEAR THE CONVECTIVE AREAS IN THE DEEP TROPICS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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CHRISTENSEN