000
AXNT20 KNHC 091132
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 5N22W 
1N38W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 1W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 26W-37W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO BISECT THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SRN FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS TO 
NEAR 26N88W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 
CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS. THE FRONT REMAINS DRY IN NATURE WITH LITTLE 
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE 
BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HOWEVER...A STRONGER LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORMING ACROSS SRN TEXAS. RADAR 
IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
MOVING ACROSS SE TEXAS AND NOW INTO THE NW GULF. BUOY 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE S-SE WINDS UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE TEXAS 
COAST. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH 
MOVING ACROSS WRN TEXAS. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES EWD...SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES COASTLINE WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE BASIN.  SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN BRAZIL. 
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A 
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
NEAR 17N69W TO NRN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W. A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W. 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME ENHANCED LEVELS 
OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. SOME PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE 
SUPPORTING AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT TRADEWINDS TO 
INCREASE AS THE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC DISSIPATES AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A 
PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DISSIPATED 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N53W SW TO NRN HAITI NEAR 
20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. 
A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND IT ALONG 32N69W TO THE NW BAHAMAS 
CROSSING FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED 
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY N OF 30N BETWEEN 63W-74W. FARTHER E...BROAD 
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A 1027 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 
31N32W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. 
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N 
OF ERN BRAZIL TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING DOWN ERN SPAIN AND E OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS WELL AS SOME 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS RANGING FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS WRN AFRICA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON