000
AXNT20 KNHC 090534
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM NRN LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 
3N26W 1N40W 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 29W-33W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO 
TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL 
GULF NEAR 25N92W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE 
TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CRISTI. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NW-N 
WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE N OF THE FRONT WITH STRONGER E-SE WINDS 
UP TO 20 KTS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE. THE FRONT REMAINS WEAK 
DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE BASIN PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE BASIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED ALONG THE NE MEXICAN COAST 
AND OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MAKES IT WAY ACROSS 
WRN TEXAS. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THE GULF...LOW PRESSURE IS 
FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE MIDDAY SUNDAY AND 
TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST TROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE BASIN BRINGING SHOWER ACTIVITY 
WITH IT.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS NRN HAITI AND EXTENDS TO N 
OF JAMAICA SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF HISPANIOLA. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN BRAZIL. MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A FEW AREAS OF 
ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 
68W-80W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SOME 
ENHANCED LEVELS OF MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. SOME PATCHES OF UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND 
THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT 
TRADEWINDS TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC 
DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A 
PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. A DISSIPATED 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 32N55W SW TO NRN HAITI NEAR 
20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. 
A COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND IT ALONG 32N70W TO NEAR WEST PALM 
BEACH FLORIDA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY 
N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-76W. FARTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING 
DOMINATES AROUND A 1027 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 31N33W. THE 
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM N OF 
ERN BRAZIL TOWARDS THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
COVERS THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING DOWN PORTUGAL AND E OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS WELL AS SOME 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS RANGING FROM THE ITCZ ACROSS WRN AFRICA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON