000
AXNT20 KNHC 081713
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SAT JAN 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 05N09W TO 04N30W TO 
02N38W TO 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 27W...AND 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W AND 45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THIS 
MORNING...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF 
FLORIDA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
WINDS OVER THE NE GULF VEERING TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT AS THE FRONT PASSES...THEN 
DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 20 KT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS ARE NOTED OVER 
THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...WHERE A 1006 MB LOW 
PRES AREA WAS ANALYZED JUST INLAND AT 12Z. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE 
GULF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FURTHER 
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...CLEARING THE SOUTHEAST GULF 
BY LATE TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST...LOW PRES WILL FORM OVER S TEXAS 
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN MIGRATE NE TOWARD THE 
MISSISSIPPI DELTA BY EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N OVER THE 
WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW AS A WARM FRONT. BY EARLY 
SUN...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD 
OF THE LOW...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...WITH 15 TO 
20 KT NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
A STALLED AND WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HAITI TO N 
OF JAMAICA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY 
EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE 
NE. ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
KEEPING SKIES IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLEAR. LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE OF 15 TO 20 KT E TO SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY FROM S OF 
PUERTO RICO TO NE COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO PERSIST OVER 
THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 
EXPECT TRADE WIND FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 26N63W...THEN STATIONARY 
THROUGH NORTHERN HAITI. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH N OF 30N ALONG 56W. A BROAD AREA OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N 
AS FAR EAST AS 50W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AS THE 
SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL 
MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT N OF 30N W OF 70W WILL REACH GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE FRONT WEAKENS FROM BERMUDA TO S 
FLORIDA BY EARLY SUN. THE SECOND FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER E BY 
MON...REACHING FROM 31N47W TO NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THEN 
DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.  FURTHER EAST...BROAD 1028 SURFACE HIGH 
PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N33W. ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT TRADE 
WINDS S OF THE HIGH PRES...MAINLY E OF 45W. SKIES ARE MOSTLY 
CLEAR OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE ITCZ WHERE 
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE 
STRONGER TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE 
HIGH PRES SLOWLY SHIFTS E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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CHRISTENSEN