000 AXNT20 KNHC 081133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT JAN 08 2011 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N9W ALONG 5N26W 2N36W 5N47W 4N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 16W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 37W-45W...AND FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N90W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE AROUND THE RIDGE WITH SOME 25 KT WLY WINDS NOTED IN THE NE PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING UP THE THE ERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS PROVIDING NELY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF. A CURRENTLY DRY COLD FRONT LINES THE ENTIRE GULF COAST FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SRN TEXAS SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND W ATLC. SWLY RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NW GULF AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE EARLY SUNDAY WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE N OF JAMAICA TO N OF HONDURAS ALONG 20N75W 19N81W 16N88W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION OUT ACROSS THE WRN ATLC CONTINUING TO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA AND OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE AREA E OF 84W AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN BRAZIL. SOME PATCHES OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THIS SWLY FLOW ARE SUPPORTING AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING AS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N64W 22N70W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY WAY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FARTHER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN 150 NM AND 300 NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR 28N61W CONTINUING TO N HISPANIOLA WHICH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E EXTENDING FROM N OF ERN BRAZIL NEAR 6N47W ALONG 19N55W 41N38W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED N OF 30N W OF 80W WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 30N34W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W OF PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY AND CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON