000
AXNT20 KNHC 072336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N08W TO 04N20W TO 02N30W TO 
02N40W TO 01N48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
4S-2N BETWEEN 36W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
5S-6N BETWEEN 41W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N93W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 15-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED 
OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF. 
EXPECT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA 
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 
HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 16N88W. NO PRECIPITATION IS NOTED ALONG 
THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS N OF THE FRONT. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND N 
VENEZUELA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 68W-73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA DUE TO LOW LEVEL 
CONFLUENCE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY S 
OF PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 50-70 KT UPPER LEVEL JET 
EXTENDS FROM OVER COSTA RICA TO PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED TO BROKEN 
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE JET. 
EXPECT THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W 
TO 23N70W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 57W-66W. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO 60W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N36W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W 
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 30W-65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF 30W. EXPECT A 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO 
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BEHIND THE FRONT. 
ALSO EXPECT THE PRIMARY FRONT TO MOVE E AND BE FROM 31N57W TO 
HISPANIOLA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA