000
AXNT20 KNHC 071646
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N08W TO 02N30W TO 01N50W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
W OF 38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS 
MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO...BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE SE PORTION 
OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT. EARLY MORNING SHIP AND ASCAT DATA TO 
SHOW 20 KT NW FLOW OVER THE FAR SE GULF...BUT THIS HAS STARTED 
TO DIMINISH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS OVER THE NE WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AS A ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES 
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NEAR COZUMEL 
MEXICO AS IT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR 
PREVAILS OVER THE NW GULF IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THE 
MOVED INTO THE AREA...AND VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER OR DISCERNIBLE 
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING. FURTHER 
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF N AND NE FLOW OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTS OF 
COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE E TO SE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 
LOOKING AHEAD...TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN S OF 32N...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N68W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA IS WELL 
DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A LARGE AREA OF PROBABLE 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 25N. SW 
WINDS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 50W. 
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE E REACHING FROM 32N63W TO THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE BY EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATE LATER SAT. A REINFORCING 
COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES SAT 
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG W TO NW WINDS. FURTHER EAST...A 
1023 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 29N36W. ASCAT 
AND BUOY DATA SHOW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS S OF THE RIDGE OVER THE 
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...GENERALLY S OF 18N. A PAIR OF PERSISTENT 
WEAK TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA 
ALONG 20N NEAR 47W AND 56W...AND THESE WILL LIKELY DAMPEN OUT 
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE TRADE WIND 
FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE 
AMAZON RIVER DELTA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE WITH LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WINDS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN