000
AXNT20 KNHC 071134
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 7N11W EXTENDING ALONG 5N20W 1N30W 
2N42W TO THE EQUATOR AT 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 
18W AND 26W...AND FROM 6N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 33W 
AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF N OF 
21N. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND IS 
MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 
07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE GULF AT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N91W 
DISSIPATING TO 20N95W. POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE 
FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR 
WEATHER THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE 
FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH THAT AS OF 07/0900 MOVED OFF 
THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N95W.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS DIPS INTO THE NW 
CARIBBEAN OVER NW CUBA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 
07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NW ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 
22N80W EXTENDING TO 21N84W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N87W 
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED 
BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 
15N E OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND 
PANAMA...AND ALONG A LINE FROM 14N81W TO POINTE FANCHON HAITI 
NEAR 18N74W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT AND 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND IS MOVING 
OFF THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A 991 MB SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE 
REGION AND A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 07/0900 UTC ENTERS THE AREA 
NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING ALONG 26N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 22N80W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 75W 
AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 75W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
N OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 63W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES 
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1021 
MB HIGH NEAR 29N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N53W TO 
20N56W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 52W AND 
55W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE E FROM 21N44W TO 
17N45W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 42W AND 
47W. THESE TWO TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW