000
AXNT20 KNHC 070608
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI JAN 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W 
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W...THEN 
RETURNING N OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W ALONG 1N42W TO S OF THE 
EQUATOR AGAIN NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 12W AND 23W...AND FROM 
6N TO SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE GULF N OF 
25N. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND IS 
MOVING OFF THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 
07/0300 UTC ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
24N81W EXTENDING ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N83W TO 
22N87W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 21N95W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING NW CUBA WITHIN 45 NM 
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL AND PENINSULA WITHIN 30 NM TO THE S OF THE FRONT. THE 
MAJORITY OF THE GULF IS ENJOYING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH 
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF 
THE GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE DOMINATED BY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH NO SURFACE FEATURES BEING ANALYZED AT 
THE PRESENT TIME. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 14N E OF 
80W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND 
FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE S GULF 
OF MEXICO...NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND NW ATLC. AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AND IS MOVING 
OFF THE SE CONUS...SUPPORTING A 995 MB SURFACE LOW WELL N OF THE 
REGION AND A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N86W 
EXTENDING ALONG 28N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE 
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N81W. MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT W OF 77W 
AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT SE OF 77W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N 
OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 63W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES 
THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 
MB HIGH NEAR 29N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 22N54W TO 
18N55W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 190 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS AND FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. ANOTHER 
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED TO THE E FROM 21N43W TO 17N44W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N 
OF 19N. THESE TWO TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE NE ATLC...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH REPRESENTING A REMNANT COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 31N16W TO 25N26W WITH NO 
SHOWER ACTIVITY.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
SMM/PAW